Notes from the 2018 DTN Summit

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Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue

  • Trusting but verifying China trade reform

  • China rising storm

  • China growth rate lowest in over a decade

  • Huge food deficits

  • Rural to city population move continuing along with higher food standards

  • Asian swine flu causing major disruption of meat consumption & prices

Grain Marketing

  • # of farms in US has declined 23% in 30 years

  • # of acres farmed has declined 3%

  • Bunge-1818

  • Louis Dreyfus-1851

  • Cargill-1865

  • Average managed futures fund- 4.5 years lifespan

Jim Carroll, Futurist

  • 7 out of 10 children will work in jobs not existing today

  • Multiple trends merge, speed accelerates

  • Massive transformation, crazy ideas, bold thinking

  • Every industry becomes a software industry

  • Moore's law defines innovation velocity

  • Science exponentiates

  • Strategies scrambled

  • Reinvention dominates

  • Time collapses with advanced methodologies

  • Global trends globalize

  • Science, health and tech get married

  • Packaging changes, packaging connects

  • Gamers game, virtualization emerges

  • FarmVille

  • Generations change

  • Think big, start small, scale fast

Blockchain

  • Bitcoin or some digital currency will become common

  • Connected computers reaching agreement over shared data

  • Public Key Encryption

  • Any supplier of leafy greens to Walmart must use blockchain

  • Product traceability in 2.2 seconds

  • Market transparency

  • Security Efficiency

Improving Your Family's Business Together

  • Ownership vs Management

  • The change from business to legacy

  • Healthy communication

  • Articulated expectations

  • Agreement on goals

  • Accept & respect

  • Professional development & emotional intelligence

  • Understanding business performance

2019 Weather-Rolling Sevens, Bryce Anderson

  • Weather looking like 7th growing season with no big problems

  • There is enough corn acreage planted that we are affecting summer weather patterns

  • Slowest harvest since 2009

  • 70% chance of weak El Niño into summer of 2019

  • Colder than normal winter - winter lasting into March

  • Cold & reduced snow

  • Global warming continues - not so much in Midwest US

  • More weather volatility coming-heavier spring rains, drier warmer summers

Market Outlook, Todd Hultman

  • In 2015 extreme poverty fell to 10% of world population (>$1.90/day)

  • World demand for soybeans up 260% in 30 years

  • Cash corn price range estimate 2.40-3.80

  • Cash wheat price range estimate 3.80-5.50

  • Cash soybean price range estimate 6.50-9.50

Giving Thanks

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Partners,

Got eight inches of snow last Sunday overnight which has slowed down outside work, and 50mph winds meant Monday morning was devoted to snow removal. The snow has also has given me time to reflect of all things we are thankful for such as:

On The Farm…

Bountiful crops

Safe Harvest

Great Landowners

Helpful input suppliers

Modern Equipment

Super Team Members

This Country…

Freedom 

Free Enterprise

Open Markets

Democratic Elections

Safety

Our Family…

Health

God-Fearing Kids and Grandkids

Comfortable Housing

Our Church

Plenty to eat

Take a moment and count and reflect on what you are blessed with. We really have so little to complain about and so much to be thankful for!

Current Prices:

Corn 3.45

Soybeans 8.37

Steve

Last Rows

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We finally found those last rows last Wednesday night about 8:30. Spent all day Thursday getting things tucked in for the rain that night. It was a good feeling during the rain on Friday to be finished. We have a lot of beans stored this year; we only hauled one load to the river. Big thanks to all the great help! Now on to the jobs we put off during harvest. Cleaning equipment, dirt work, tiling (80 acre project), catching up in the office. Planning to start NH3 application after November 1. Looks like the beans were best ever--corn did well, too. The moisture of the last corn hauled from field to shuttle was under 15% and stalk quality was suffering. 

The ag world is wondering what the next move will be in the tariff war chess game. The new Brazilian president is planning on turning his country loose for full production. He has even backpedaled on restricting Chinese investment! The commodity prices right now favor corn next year—looks like beans might not move above break-even. The elections next week could make for some interesting plays too. The governor front runner in Illinois is pushing for progressive income tax and a mileage tax on vehicles to raise money for road repair. We are already the second or third highest taxed state in the union. No one has mentioned any real estate tax relief. 

Family is well--holidays will be here soon to give us a time to reflect on all the things we have to be thankful for. Winter meeting season is heating up too.

Current prices:

Corn 3.36

Soybeans 7.84

Enjoy the fall colors!

Steve

Halfway

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Partners,

We are eat the halfway mark for the 2018 harvest with corn and soybeans. Yields are about as we have been predicting--corn is about trend line (which means good but not best ever) and beans are coming in at what could be the best ever crop. So far we have experienced only a few minor breakdowns and not much more than one harvest day lost. Charlie knows well where the John Deere Parts Depot is located in Milan, and we are now on first name basis with the parts man in Havana at Sloan Implement. We are trying to keep up with the seed bean crop to keep moisture in the seed, and that has entailed some tough cutting and lots of aeration in the bins. This next week does not look like good bean cutting weather and now there could be a problem with quality and beans getting too dry and popping out of the pods. The corn has dried considerably in the field and we will probably be able to run the rest of the crop into the bin without drying. This is not our preference since field dry down seems to involve "phantom yield loss." Our best yields almost always come when we begin harvest with the corn at about 25% moisture. The extra cost of drying the crop is almost always covered with more bushels coming out of the field. 

We really appreciate our harvest crew this season.  Our truck drivers have put in some long days and stuck with Marcus and me in the field till the combine shuts down each night! Everyone has really pitched in to learn new jobs. We are so thankful for all who have filled in. 

The farm economy is not the best but farmers are optimistic about prospects of this good crop harvest. The tariff supplement payments were announced and then decided to only pay half of the amount. They will not cover the price drop. There are beans moving in all kinds of weird directions in the world and the multinational grain companies are profiting nicely. China has not been playing nice in the sandbox for a long time and we realize we will have to endure some short term pain to get things back in equilibrium. I am thankful we have a president who knows how to negotiate and does not back down when others play hardball. 

Family is in a good place. Alison got delivered to UChicago last week and starts classes October 1. Everyone else doing well in classes and learning experiences. We missed our niece’s wedding in Virginia due to UChicago orientation but Opa and Oma made it to the big event. Adjusting to fall weather reminds us winter is not far away.

Fall Prices:

Corn 3.19

Soybeans 7.67

Harvest Party is October 20th--hope to see you there!

Steve

Here We Go

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Partners,

We are about a week away from start of harvest. This will be one of the earliest starts ever with the rapid maturation of the corn (about 10 days ahead of average) and beans (about week early). After getting most of our summer project list wrapped up and getting horses delivered to their new home at Marcus's house, we are getting pre-harvest tasks checked off. Cleaning bins (for seed beans - must pass inspection), combine out of storage and in shop for technology update and installation, semi maintenance, grains system maintenance, final mowing of season for roadsides and waterways, lime hauling, school startup and equipment preparation. Ideally we'd like to test everything out this week, but will probably go to field day after Labor Day. Will let you know yield trends when we start.

Tariffs are a big issue in farm country. Soybean prices are down about 1.75 since the trade war talk started (hence the 1.65 proposed compensation from USDA). Another fallout of the soy issue is that we are facing basis bids twice as wide as normal. Dicamba re-certification for soybeans is a big talking point. The farm bill in congress is being debated mainly for the SNAP portion of the bill. Several crop tours are coming in with yield forecasts of a good corn crop (but not as big as last year) and a record soybean prospect. Pod counts in the soybean fields are highest ever which has led to the lowest prices in 6 years.

Family is doing well. Homeschool has started in St Louis, and locally Trinity started classes this past week. Alison goes to Chicago for orientation September 22 and class starts October 1 after a great sendoff party 2 weeks ago. Charles and Wilma celebrated their 65th wedding anniversary with a family celebration and community reception. 

Fall Bids:

Corn 3.25

Soybeans 7.65

Enjoy the fall weather!

Steve