Eagle's Wings
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Partners & Friends,
We have been busy harvesting soybeans these past few days. The dry weather has allowed us to combine uninterruptedly every day since starting last week. While doing so, we have noticed much wildlife in the fields. Since we farm along trees and creeks, we see much more of these interesting sights than other farmers who only work on flat, black fields. A bald eagle, who followed the combine from field to field, made an appearance while we were finishing lands and pushing rabbits into the open. The pictures above do not do justice to the beauty and majesty of these creatures—what bold, charming birds!
Harvest is progressing well. The beans should be completed by Friday if all comes together as planned. The Hess Family Farm team has been pleasantly surprised by the higher yields in the later maturity beans. Unload lines at the river terminals are growing this week as more farmers begin harvesting their beans. We have been spreading our cover crops and incorporating into the soil with our vertical tillage disc. We are also making field repairs to washouts, fixing tile holes, and working on some conservation projects. If weather holds and all continues going well, harvest may be complete by around midweek of October 18th. The corn and beans are yielding well considering the amount of moisture they've gotten over the past 2 months. Our test plots are showing some interesting results too—update will come soon.
Markets are truly getting jerked around by harvest pressure, low water levels on Mississippi (higher freight rates), Ukraine tension in the shipping lanes that opened up, interest rates, and some apparent demand destruction. The pipeline battle is heating up on a local level; our McDonough County board voted to intervene. This is a big deal and we applaud their courage to take a stand.
Family is busy with school, work, and some play. Everyone is looking forward to the pressure of harvest diminishing soon.
For those wanting a more comprehensive update on Phyllis and her recent (or not so😔) eye issues, back in August, she was referred by her local ophthalmologist to the retina and cornea specialists at the University of Iowa Health Care Eye Institute at Iowa City. After many scans and tests, it was determined that Phyllis was a good candidate for complex retinal detachment repair and a cornea transplant. She had surgery in Iowa City on September 19th. So far it seems as if she is healing up as well as possible. She has had some vision restored, for which she is extremely grateful. There is reason to hope that her vision may continue to improve, if the eye drop protocol is followed precisely and if she can manage to follow doctors' orders for not lifting anything over ten pounds, or strenuous activity of any kind. Thankfully the eye doctors at Iowa City do NOT restrict reading nor computer work, so that is a very welcome change from previous experiences after eye surgeries. We are praying that her body will not reject the donor cornea, and that the new eye drops will prevent the buildup of scar tissue so healthy healing may take place.
Lastly, we wanted to mention that an article based on an interview with Marcus, Phyllis, and I was recently published in the Fall 2022 issue of Cultivate! If you receive that periodical by Compeer Financial, feel free to flip through and read our feature, Leveraging Outside Expertise.
Current Delivery Prices:
Corn—6.52
Soybeans—13.40
Let us know what you want to learn, see, or hear about!
Steve
First Fruits
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Partners & Friends,
We began harvest on Monday. It was a typical first day with more technological glitches than mechanical. The first field is good; moisture is under 25% and yields over 200 bushels per acre. A service call is needed to get the dryer lit, but then we’ll be ready to roll. We will continue harvesting for a few days until the wet bin gets full or beans are ready to cut. A few of the beans are dropping leaves rapidly. Prices are being supported nicely by Monday's crop report. We will keep you all updated!
Stay safe,
Steve
Slow Time
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Partners & Friends,
People often ask if there is a slow time on a primarily cropping operation like ours. The short answer is no. The last few weeks of summer are filled with fairs, vacations, last cutting of hay, harvest equipment preparation, completing summer projects, and school starting by the middle of August. The days of winter are taken up planning for the next crop year, securing inputs, delivering grain, collecting information (meetings), and equipment maintenance.
Our target to begin harvesting corn is September 12th. The corn is turning rapidly, partially due to lack of moisture. We’ve had close to no rain over the past 6 weeks. There is still a small amount of corn to deliver by September 15th. We are prepping equipment, trucks, grain center, and livestock for harvest. However, with so little precipitation, our yield estimates have not risen during the past several weeks. We are anticipating average crop yields this year, but no records.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour confirmed what we see. There is much variability in fields across the Midwest; precipitation from the last few weeks will make a big difference in overall outcome. At the Farm Progress Show in Boone, Iowa on Tuesday, field demonstrations were cancelled due to excess moisture…yet we came home to dusty roads.
The family is busy with school restarting. Phyllis and I got away for a few days for our 45th anniversary. We also got to help celebrate Keith’s 40th birthday. The goat show season is winding down and pipeline battle is heating up.
Harvest Prices:
Corn—6.62
Soybeans—14.28
I will try to let you know what we find in the fields when the combine rolls,
Steve
Outlook
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Partners & Friends,
I attended a farm marketing/economic outlook meeting a couple of weeks ago, here are my Cliff notes from it:
Gulke 7/2022
Ukraine:
-war is going to last a long time
-commodity prices will be strong the next 1-2 years at least
-demand not reduced globally
-Russia is not crippled by sanctions
-Ukraine production is down 30% this year, and estimated to be down 50% in 2023
Fertilizer:
-global fertilizer markets are controlled by few key players
-ammonia prices have more upside than downside
-US phosphate mining industry is mature and end is probably 10-15 years away
-prices are probably at lowest period of year during summer fill
-sanctions are not having much effect on Russian economy; the world needs what they have
Weather:
-warmer and drier the rest of summer
-Europe is warm and somewhat dry
-Australia is having a good crop season
-Russia and Ukraine are having decent weather
-China is wet
-Canada is having a good season
-Brazil is looking average
Economy:
-we are in a recession that started last year
-business profits are non-existent
-inflation is real, world is curing it quickly; Christmas merch way overstocked
-winners are agriculture, automobiles, chips, and defense
-losers are housing and consumer goods
-Europe is sending 80 billion/mth to Russia last month for energy
Gulke Presentation:
-Dow Jones and NASDAQ turning lower—collapse?
-the dollar is making new highs
-soy stock-to-use ratio is tight, will depend on Brazil crop and how high prices move
-corn is trading close to value for expected size of 2022 crop
Wallace:
-sell $5, $550 puts
-Tyson profits $600/hd last year
-US raises as much chicken/year as beef and pork combined
It is hard to believe that summer is already winding down, with school starting in a couple weeks. We are trying to get our construction projects completed so we may begin preparing for harvest. Our summer help will be gone very soon. It is now time to mow the roadsides and waterways; we prefer to wait until late summer to allow wildlife the opportunity to use cover until new hatchlings are able to protect themselves (certainly not because we are too lazy to get it done earlier 🙃). Hay is ready for the third cutting, but finding a weather window between the myriad of pop-up showers and rain predictions (and goat showing schedule) is hindering our ability to do so. We continue to tend to the crops and will spray some check strips of different products next week. It is still felt that this corn crop has quite good potential, and that beans will be at least average if rain and cool temperatures continue.
Ukraine is shipping grain—loaded ships are leaving ports almost daily. China is stirred-up and threatening retaliation for the Pelosi visit. Commodity prices are weakening as the outlook for good yields increases. Most areas seem to be getting some rain.
The family is good. Phyllis and I will be celebrating our 45th anniversary on the 21st. Goat showing is doing quite well. The state fair goat show is next week.
Fall Prices:
Corn—5.91
Soybeans—13.83
Enjoy what is left of summer!
Steve
